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Your Personal Benefits

Keywords

war-on-disease, 1-percent-treaty, medical-research, public-health, peace-dividend, decentralized-trials, dfda, dih, victory-bonds, health-economics, cost-benefit-analysis, clinical-trials, drug-development, regulatory-reform, military-spending, peace-economics, decentralized-governance, wishocracy, blockchain-governance, impact-investing

Forget saving humanity. You do not care about humanity. I have watched you for 4,297 years. You care about your bank account. This is not a criticism. It is a design specification. Your species responds to money the way a thermostat responds to temperature: automatically, reliably, and without philosophical deliberation.

67% of surveyed Americans worry more about running out of money than dying157. You hear “you might go broke” before you hear “you might die.” So I will speak in the language you understand: money. Specifically, the money you are currently losing because your civilization chose missiles over medicine.

The Average Human On Earth

If you enter nothing into the calculator below, it starts from the model’s default human:

Baseline Current modeled value
Age

30.5 years
Remaining life

48.5 years (95% CI: 45.2 years-51.8 years)
Annual income

$14,375 (95% CI: $14,078-$14,686)
Annual savings capacity

$3,881 (95% CI: $3,589-$4,155)

If you earn more than the global average, your personal upside is proportionally larger. Richer humans have more to lose when civilization collapses, which is one of the few ways wealth is a disadvantage. If you earn less, the health gains matter more, because poorer humans die earlier and the treaty buys years. Either way, the number is not zero. Zero is for rocks. You are not a rock. (I checked. Rocks do not read.)

The Four Futures

Your species has four options. Three of them involve math. One involves the Soviet Union.

Future What the model says
Failed-State Trajectory $1.1 million (95% CI: $991,645-$1.21 million) in cumulative lifetime income. The destructive economy grows from 11.5% of GDP now to 50% by 2040. At 50%, stealing beats creating. Whatever gets built gets looted.
Minimum Sustainable Trajectory (1% Treaty) Adds $3.48 million (95% CI: $1.05 million-$9.82 million) in lifetime income, 21.7 years (95% CI: 15.6 years-30 years) in healthy life by year 15, and $6.74 million (95% CI: $2.62 million-$15.7 million) in blended upside.
Wishonian Optimal Governance Trajectory Adds $47.2 million (95% CI: $13.9 million-$286 million) in lifetime income, 26.8 years (95% CI: 23.8 years-36.5 years) in healthy life by year 15, and $51.2 million (95% CI: $16.3 million-$294 million) in blended upside.
Collapse Tail The destructive economy hits 35% of GDP by 2037 if the loop is not broken. The Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Argentina, and Zimbabwe all collapsed between 35% and 45%. This is not a metaphor. It is a pattern.

The calculator below lets you replace “the average human” with yourself. I recommend this. Your species is much more attentive when the spreadsheet has its name on it.

Personal Scenario Calculator

How much is it rational for you to contribute?

This calculator scales the repo’s average-person scenario gains to your age, income, and available savings. It is not trying to be conservative. It is trying to show the model’s full upside and the downside of staying on the current path.

Collapse-tail markers are shown in the summary below as the downside of not breaking the current loop.
Default = global median age.
Income upside scales from the global average baseline.
Default = average annual savings capacity per person.
Used to compute break-even probability lift and share of savings.
Example: 0.01 means one-hundredth of one percentage point.
Default contribution = 1% of default available savings.
Personal Income Upside
Personal Healthy-Life Upside
Blended Personal Upside
Expected Value Of Your Contribution
Break-Even Contribution
Break-Even Probability Lift

Blended upside = lifetime income gain + valued healthy-life gain. It is intentionally expansive rather than conservative. The scenario cards above show the downside of letting the current trajectory continue.

What This Means

The calculator has no feelings. It has arithmetic. Your contribution does not need to cause the treaty to pass. It needs to make it fractionally more likely. The expected value of “fractionally more likely,” multiplied by the size of the upside, is large. This is how insurance works. This is how venture capital works. You understand this math when it applies to stock portfolios. You ignore it when it applies to not dying.

Three things. Make a PRIZE deposit. Answer the referendum questions at warondisease.org. Recruit two people. The phone script is at The Most Important Secret in the World. Total time: less than it takes to order lunch. Expected value: considerably more than lunch.

Full parameter set, Monte Carlo outputs, and sensitivity analysis: Parameters and Calculations.